The Old Abnormal

Earlier this decade we were graced with the catchphrase the ‘new economy’ to explain why price to earnings ratios of 100 made sense. Today’s catchphrase, the ‘new normal’, has been coined by the folks at PIMCO to explain why we should get used to much lower growth rates for a while. Mohamed El-Erian and his boss Bill Gross have been on a bit of a mission touting the virtue of weighing security portfolios in favor of bonds and reducing allocation to equities. The logic is that the Great Recession has embarked us on a new era of slow growth characterized by high employment, capital starvation, more regulation and the rising power of China and other emerging markets at the expense of the United States. According to PIMCO equity exposure should now be in the 30% to 54% range as opposed to 60% with no more than half in U.S. equities. Needless to say this advice will benefit PIMCO as one of the biggest bond shops in the world with over $800 billion under management, $120 billion of that coming in since the beginning of 2008.

Perhaps not surprisingly the masses are blindly following the advice of the 'experts' and succumbing to Mr. Market’s mood swings. There is a lot of talk about slow growth, the importance of asset allocation and the nasty repercussions of a depreciating U.S. Dollar. I recently posed a question to Stephen Yacktman of Yacktman Funds during a Q&A facilitated by the Wall Street Journal’s Journal Community and here is what he had to say about the new normal:


So one can try to figure out how to play the asset allocation game or one can concentrate on buying good businesses at reasonable prices. As I have discussed before, many of the largest U.S. corporations offer a natural hedge against a declining U.S. Dollar not to mention the fact that by virtue of being multinationals they will also let you participate in the growth of non-U.S. economies. This is the time to invest in equities for the long run not when growth resumes and the ‘new normal’ morphs into the ‘old abnormal’. To be sure Mr. Market has been on a bit of a tear since April and equities are more fairly valued than cheap. But companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Coca Cola (NYSE: KO), Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and Ebay (Nasdaq: EBAY) are worth considering despite the recent rally.

The Golden Wall

The Black Box algorithms and catchy names served their purpose while the good times rolled along through the early part of 2007. Fees and market beating returns for the likes of Pequot Capital and Atticus Capital were all too easy to come by. But the recent turmoil in the markets is turning out to be a tad too much for these folks. Pequot is all but shut down and Atticus announced a few weeks ago that it is returning 95 percent of its investors' money by October. It turns out, according to one source close to Atticus' Mr. Barakett, that “there is no fundamental analysis in the market today” and that the "golden era of equity investment is over”. I am not making this up. This was printed loud and clear on the front section of Financial Times' Market section. Yup, Mr. Barakett even attributed a portion of his performance over the past ten years to luck. So much for the secret Black Box algorithms and hanging in there for your loyal investors when the times get tough. Unfortunately he has no incentive to do so. Why work hard to make up for losses when he won't get paid for his efforts (hedge funds can't collect a performance fee until they get back over the previously set high water mark)? This pervasive psychology along with the rise of the Black Swan theory and Dr. Doom and headlines such as “There will be Blood” in our own Globe and Mail newspaper are what typify market bottoms. We may not be out of the woods yet but this is exactly when you want to be putting your money to work. The golden age may have ended for the fancy hedge fund folks, but Mr. Market will happily continue climbing that shiny Golden Wall of Worry for a long time to come.

Certifiably Crazy

The recent sell-off in Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRKB) stock has been nothing short of astonishing. But it is perhaps another sign of fear creeping into investors' psychology. Hand in hand with that decline has been a dramatic rise in the value of the company's credit default swaps implying the AAA-rated conglomerate's credit should be considered junk. Whitney Tilson's article published by Seeking Alpha is a great read on this subject. He calls the stock's dramatic decline "certifiably crazy".

Mr. Buffett himself warned of the derivative time-bomb in his 2002 letter to shareholders. Who in their right mind would think that one of the best investors of our lifetime would ignore his own words of wisdom and enter into such perilous contracts? The equity index put options written against 4 indexes appear to be causing the most angst for Mr. Market. Never mind that the contracts do not require him to post barely ANY collateral even in the event these indexes decline dramatically and that any losses recorded on the books are merely paper losses and nothing more. Never mind that the first contract won't expire until 2019 and that they have an average life of 13.5 years. Never mind that according to a just released email from Mr. Buffett, the value of the indexes would have to decline to ZERO for Berkshire to incur a loss equal to its maximum exposure of $35.5 billion. And never mind that he has gotten paid $4.85 billion in premiums for those contracts which he may invest as he wishes.

Mr. Buffett has indicated that he will provide much greater detail about these contracts in his 2008 shareholder letter and that he will provide "all aspects of valuation" and "deficiencies in formula" for pricing the derivatives. He goes on to say that he uses the formula despite the deficiencies. Classic Buffett to point out the shortcomings of the formula. This should make for some fascinating reading.

In a sign of the times we live in, Berkshire's stock has already rallied 28% from the lows they hit last week. They closed today at just over $3,200. Something is not right when you witness this kind of volatility in Berkshire. But it is precisely in the midst of this confusion that you should be taking advantage of the buying opportunities being presented by Mr. Market. Mr. Tilson has. He has doubled his holding in Berkshire by committing 20% of his fund to the stock.

Burnt Hedges

Fancy suits, designer glasses and a personality that perhaps stood out a bit from the crowd. Back in 2007 as the Dow was marching its way to a record 14,000, these were apparently some of the prerequisites for launching a fund according to some folks. Oh yes, there was one more prerequisite: a secret sauce or ‘black box’ strategy to go along with the fanciness. The Hedgies could do no wrong with returns exceeding 25% a year over the past 5 years or so, justifying their exorbitant fees. Bland looking, boring value investors were out of style.

Well, a Black Swan has swooped in and ripped the Armani suits and the black boxes to pieces. Hedge funds are closing up shop at a rapid pace and more carnage probably lies ahead as redemptions pour in at a furious pace and losses mount. Our own Globe and Mail newspaper has had recent articles about ‘high-profile’ Lawrence Asset Management and Salida Capital which have suffered heavy losses.

To be sure there are those who will come out of this stronger and bigger than before. Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital has managed to raise capital in this environment, a testament to his staying power and superior performance relative to peers. John Paulson’s Paulson & Co. has posted impressive gains amid the turmoil. But the ranks of the Hedgies will be thinner come 2009. Here is a sampling of Canadian hedge funds’ performance as reported by the Globe and Mail in October 2008.

Time to Buy

It has been a while but life can get busy sometimes. I last posted on Margin of Safety in January 2008 and discussed the possibility of a recession and outright Armageddon. Well, both of those are upon us with a vengeance. I have been investing for a little over ten years and the tech bubble and ensuing recession pale in comparison to what is happening right now.

Meanwhile, I have been behind on updating you on the Model Portfolio but have been posting trades I would have executed during that time. I have just posted an update of the portfolio’s performance for the twelve months ending September 2008. Please visit that section of the blog for more color on the portfolio’s performance. Of course the carnage began in October and the Model Portfolio has not been spared. But I plan to add new positions and add to existing holdings as the market experiences these wild convulsions.

These are scary times for investors. I feel especially bad for those who have been saving to go to college or those who may have been contemplating a retirement. The joke is that 401(k)s are now 201(k)s. Predictions range from a short recession to a long and hard economic slowdown that may last through 2011. One article I read used the expression “contained depression” to describe the environment we will face over the next few years. Others are calling this a bottom while others think we may see Dow 7,000. Regardless, we have given up a decade of gains in the stock market. How this will end and when the markets will begin a turn around are anyone’s guess.

There is no question we have some hard times ahead of us. The number of people losing their jobs is mounting every day. The world’s consumption appears to be screeching to a halt. Oil has lost more than half its value and other commodities have been battered as well. Wall Street has been reshaped forever. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are gone. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is trading at levels not seen since its IPO in 1999 and is now a bank holding company. Even the most revered investors have not been spared. Buffett, Icahn, Kerkorian, Eddie Lampert and Bill Miller have all lost billions. Many prominent mutual funds that have been closed to investors for years are reopening heir doors. Meanwhile, many hedge funds are reeling from Mr. Market’s wrath and succumbing to the high volume of redemptions forcing them to sell assets at any cost. There is no doubt the recent volatility and severe decline in the valuation of various companies are in part due to investors demanding their capital forcing funds to liquidate in anticipation of upcoming redemptions.

Franchises such as Goldman Sachs and General Electric have been left for dead by Mr. Market. I have been buying both in recent weeks. For all I can tell Mr. Market is assuming that companies such as Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), Ebay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) will never grow again. It seems our beloved analysts are overshooting on the downside just as they did on the upside. The bearish mentality is pervasive and even the venerable Warren Buffett is being questioned for his recent moves.

Mr. Buffett has been putting a lot of Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE: BRKB) cash to work in recent months. He has financed the acquisition of Wrigley’s by Mars as well as Dow Chemical’s (NYSE: DOW) acquisition of Rohm and Haas for a total of more than $7 billion. He has purchased preferred shares in Goldman and GE to the tune of $8 billion as well as warrants to buy common stock within a 5 year period at $115 and $22.5 respectively. Many pundits are questioning his timing for these transactions. A recent Op-Ed piece in the New York Time also drew fire from critics. In that article Buffett declared: “Buy American. I am.”, and concluded with this paragraph:

"I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities."

As we were going through the tech bubble, the experts declared: this time is different, companies with no earnings are worth infinity. As the Dow worked its way toward 14,000 in recent years they declared: this time is different, China and India will grow indefinitely. Now the Dow is hovering near 8,000 and they have declared: this time is different, Buffett is wrong and he is making his bets too early. Early he may be but wrong he is not. Calling a bottom is a futile exercise but buying companies at attractive valuations is a game winning strategy. Buffett is still the richest man in the world and I am betting he is still the one and only expert to listen to.

a’R’mageddon

In 2005, while an MBA candidate at Ivey, I was enthralled by David Conklin’s Global Environment of Business class. David is a fantastic professor and was kind enough to warn us on numerous occasions to sell any and all of our US dollars because it had nowhere to go but down. I did not heed his warning.

Fast forward to 2007. I spoke with David in December asking him about his availability to give a presentation on the credit markets to our team at DRI Capital. I confessed to David that I had not taken his advice on the USD. He gave me a second chance. He said Armageddon is upon us and to brace myself. Here we are in January and 2008 has begun with a bang. The Dow has swooned more than 15% from its high (earlier today stock markets around the world were pummeled and the Dow Futures don’t look pretty for tomorrow).

The R word is being thrown around like there is no tomorrow and financial stocks are in a free fall. Even strong results from IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) were not enough to calm the jittery crowd. Meanwhile, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) seemingly took advantage of the turmoil and snatched Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) for pennies on the dollar. At least 30 BofA analysts spent 4 weeks on their due diligence. Time will tell how real the diligence was and if this move was brilliance or stupidity. Countrywide shareholders will get 0.1822 BofA shares for every share they own. Countrywide shares are trading at least 20% below that exchange value creating what could turn out to be a fantastic arbitrage opportunity. The market believes BofA could still walk away or reprice the deal.

Meanwhile, Mr. Buffett is bouncing up and down with joy snapping up more Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) on a daily basis. He also figured he may as well start a bond insurance business while he is at it. Look no further than Ambac (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA (NYSE: MBI) to see why he smells blood. I hope you weren’t one of those unloading your Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKB) stock because according to many Mr. Buffett is apparently past his prime. Well not quite. The shares have all but ignored the downdraft and have rocketed to all time highs as Mr. Buffett works his magic and puts his cash hoard to work. There are also the Sovereign Funds of Kuwait and Singapore and the famous Prince Al-Waleed. All are salivating at the chance to own a piece of America’s behemoth financial titans.

One positive out of all this is that stellar businesses such as Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) are trading at half their peak valuations. And one of our favorites, Mr. Lampert’s Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) has been cut in half. Ok, so retail is in the dog house especially since a recession is all but inevitable, if the US isn’t only experiencing one. But I believe Mr. Lampert will squeeze value out of Sears. The real estate and the Sears brands should provide ample downside protection. In the meanwhile, both Mr. Lampert and I thank Mr. Market for giving us the opportunity to buy more stock. Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), the purveyor of my daily morning coffee has also been the subject of numerous analyst downgrades and doomsday scenario press coverage by the media. That is one to keep an eye on. And how about Intel? Robust results and the crushing below we predicted they would deliver to Advance Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) have not prevented a 30% decline from 2007 peak valuations.

The magnitude of write-offs at the Citigroups (NYSE: C) and Merrills (NYSE: MER) of the world has been staggering. That may just be the tip of the iceberg. But don’t fret Mr. Market’s moodiness. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, be greedy when others are fearful. Yes, life will go on beyond Armageddon and will almost certainly be better than before.

Syntax Destruction

This past weekend Alan Greenspan was interviewed byLesley Stahl on 60 minutes. During the interview, what was known as "fedspeak" during his tenure as Fed Chairman was coined Syntax Destruction by the man himself. Here is what he told Lesley: "I would engage in some form of syntax destruction which sounded as though I were answering the question, but in fact, had not."

Lesley then went on to play a clip (you may be able to take a peak at it here on YouTube) of one of Mr. Greenspan's testimonies in Congress. I almost fell off my chair laughing. Here is what he said during that testimony:

"Modest preemptive action can obviate the need of more drastic actions at a later date and that could destabilize the economy."

Mr. Greenspan's reaction after he watched the clip, "Very profound." You could sense the sarcasm in his voice a mile away. Not that the Fed's actions matter much to us in the long run. But at least Mr. Greenspan's Fed provided us with some entertainment.

Alpha's Delta

S&P's total return for August: 1.5%

Goldman Sachs Group's (NYSE: GS) flagship Global Alpha fund performance for August: -22.7%

The Model Portfolio outperforming both: PRICELESS

Moody Brothers

Some of the most high profile value investors have been hit hard by the recent turmoil in the credit markets. Bill Miller and Wally Weitz have seen their holdings in homebuilders and mortgage originator Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) suffer massive losses.

It doesn’t stop there. Great franchises suspected of being remotely exposed to the subprime fiasco in one way or another have seen their shares pummeled over the past few months. Citigroup (NYSE: C), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) are a few that come to mind.

What if Mr. Bernanke doesn’t cut rates? What if home prices plummet? What if the U.S. consumer is tapped out? People asking these questions are also throwing around the R word - you know, a Recession.

Against this backdrop, the Millers of the world are sticking to their guns. In a recent letter to shareholders, Miller contends that he would be a buyer of homebuilders and Countrywide if they were not already in his portfolio. To form, as two large shareholders in Countrywide were unloading shares in August, Legg Mason increased its position in the firm. Then there was Bank of America’s (NYSE: BAC) $2 billion injection into Countrywide which it can turn into an equity stake convertible at $18. And yes, amid this mayhem, our friend Mr. Buffett took a new position in Bank of America and continued to increase his exposure to banks. Mr. Lampert also jumped in and bought a stake in Citi.

A bear trap? Hardly. Is there more turmoil ahead? No doubt. But it is precisely this kind of uncertainty which creates long term opportunity. There is no question that Moody's business will be affected as appetite for fancy loan structures has all but disappeared. But the company's long term prospects will not diminish because of recent scrutiny of its role in the creation of CDOs - that would be a collaterlaized debt obligation. Meanwhile its stock has declined more than 35% from peak. Some of the financials I have mentioned above are trading at extremely attractive multiples and provide Treasury like yields close to 5% to boot. Lehman, as profiled in Barron's recently, could be a Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) in the making and trades at only 1.5 times book value. Even Countrywide is worth a look. The company has survived through down cycles before and has managed to diversify its business to include banking. Smaller rivals are exiting the mortgage business altogether. The company should emerge as a stronger player once the market stabilizes. It has ample resources at its disposal to navigate through the credit crunch and is trading below book value.

Moody’s is now predicting that housing’s woes will not subside anytime before 2009. That may seem light years away but if your time horizon is more like 5 to 10 years, this is the time to take advantage of Mr. Market’s generosity and start building a position in some fantastic businesses such as Moody’s and Lehman.

Candy Shop

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffett

It was only about a month ago that the Dow had surpassed the 14,000 mark. Today, the Dow crashed down close to the 12,500 level. Yours truly felt like I was in a candy shop. The are too many opportunities to list but I hope you were sitting on some cash to be able to take advantage of Mr. Market's generous overreaction. As is often the case, we have gone from one extreme to another. The word 'liquidity' has now been replaced with the words 'credit crunch'. Financial stocks are getting punished and the stocks of numerous companies which were the target of private equity buy-out offers have been dragged lower. We will see how all this plays out. Certainly it is too early to call today's late market recovery an end to the volatility. Problems could still spread to other parts of the U.S. economy and with global implications.

But opportunities to profit from this turmoil in the long-run abound. I have continued to add to my positions in companies such as Citigroup (NYSE: C), USG (NYSE: USG) and Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE: CSG). I have initiated new positions in battered companies such as Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Moody's (NYSE: MCO) (the latter 3 stocks are also newcomers to the Model Portfolio). Lehman will get through all this just fine and I will gladly add to my position should shares decline further from here. Moody's has ONLY been around since 1900 and basically forms a duopoly with Standard and Poors as the two dominant rating agencies. This time around the company may have its hands full with regulators because of its role in accelerating the adoption of fancy financial derivatives tied to subprime mortgages which are now wreaking havoc on the financial markets. But the company will make it through this downturn just as it has in the past. For good measure, the company has just doubled its borrowing capacity so it can buy back even more of its stock (Moody's already spends most of the oodles of cash it generates each year on buybacks). The news on housing and subprime probably won't get better anytime soon. But this is exactly what you want. Mr. Market's candy shop is open for business. Be greedy when you walk into the candy shop.

The Muellers

I wrote about Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA MWA-B) last July. At the time only the Class A shares were publicly traded. Later on, Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) completed the spin-off of Mueller by distributing its Class B shares to its shareholders. The Mueller stake in the Model Portfolio is of the B kind and resulted from owning Walter shares to begin with. But for the AA Value Fund which I update you on from time to time, I purchased Mueller A shares before the B shares began trading.

Back in June I began noticing that the A shares are more volatile but also outperforming the B shares. This was baffling because apart from a smaller float and different voting rights, the A shares represented the same economic interest in the business as the B shares. In fact, if anything, the B shares should have been trading higher than the A shares. The company’s management team was just as surprised about this and didn’t have a good answer for it during a presentation on June 12 at the JPMorgan 2^nd Annual Basic and Industrials Conference (which is still available on Mueller’s web site if you care to listen to it).

The gap between the A and B shares on June 27^th was mind boggling. I sold the A shares at $16.9 and bought a larger amount of B shares at $14.9. Today, that gap has narrowed and the B shares trade at ONLY a 7% discount to the A shares. This situation was also mentioned by Barron’s The Trader column on July 16^th. So far the switch has worked out well with the B shares declining less than the A shares since the end of June. Plus, we own more of the company now and have 8 votes per share as opposed to 1 vote per share. Ah, so much for the efficient market theory – AGAIN.

Below is an update on the AA Value Fund which I last updated you on in January. For the first 6 months of 2007, the Fund was up 21.5% vs. S&P 500’s 6% increase. No capital contributions have been made to the Fund since the beginning of 2003.

Savings Galore

I last alluded to the skewed perception of U.S.'s savings rate earlier this year. Barron's appears to agree as was apparent in a cover story in May.

Visiting Greenwald

There are those who make the pilgrimage to Omaha once a year to soak in the wisdom of Warren and Charlie. Then there are those who make the yearly pilgrimage to Columbia University’s Business School for the Value Investing Seminar taught by Bruce Greenwald. I registered for the course a year ago and finally got to attend the seminar last week. It was well worth the wait.

There were 85 students from all over the world and Greenwald did not disappoint. I have written about Greenwald before when I reviewed his book. It turns out he is working on a revised edition due out some time next year. The new version will delve deeper into valuing growth as a value investor. It will no doubt be a must read.

Greenwald overloaded us with information over the course of two days and not all of it has sunk in yet. The valuation cases on Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) were outstanding. Plus, it was great to be in the company of other hard core individual and professional investors who are just as passionate about investing as you are.

Greenwald’s valuation methodology is powerful. It combines the search for unglamorous stocks with a valuation methodology based on asset values and current earnings while being patient and disciplined. The seminar underscored the fact that there is no easy way out of thorough analysis and a complete understanding of what you are investing in. Once you have calculated an intrinsic value and determined that a company has a moat, the heavy lifting begins. Are your valuation assumptions sound? Is that moat defensible? Does the company have a sustainable competitive advantage? How much should you pay for growth?

An important concept is that if nothing is popping up as an opportunity, you better have a default strategy. Cash is fine but probably not optimal. At least buy the index against which you are being measured until you find investments worth pursuing.

By the way, in case you are wondering, he doesn’t recommend Amazon at current prices. AmEx on the other hand is a buy.

Lampert and The Prince

We first profiled Eddie Lampert late in 2005. Since then, Sears Holdings (NYSE: SHLD) has returned approximately 35%. Our thesis on this company and Mr. Lampert has not changed. Meanwhile, others are jumping on the bandwagon. Most recently on June 1st, Morningstar (Nasdaq: MORN), which by the way is a holding in the Model Portfolio, raised its fair value estimate from $150 to $240. Not as exciting was an increase in price target from $195 to $200 by Goldman Sachs earlier today - we can thank strong cash flow generation and valuation updates for that generosity. We highly encourage you to read Mr. Lampert's Chairman Messages to get a sense of his approach to operating a business and to making investments. You are in good hands. Here is what he did with some of the cash Sears generaed in 2006:

• $816 million used for share repurchases (we repurchased over 6 million shares in the year at an average price of about $133 per share);
• $474 million used for capital expenditure reinvestments in our businesses;
• $318 million contributed to fund our legacy pension obligations;
• $282 million used to purchase an additional interest in Sears Canada. Our ownership level is now 70%, up from 54% last year; and
• $250 million used for net debt reductions as our domestic debt balance declined to $3.0 billion (or $2.3 billion excluding capital lease obligations).

Mr. Lampert generated some other headlines worth mentioning. In May, SEC filings revealed that his hedge fund vehicle, ESL Investments, had amassed an $800 million stake in Chuck Prince's Citigroup (NYSE: C). It appears he built his stake through last September and bought more during the first three months of 2007. Overall, we estimate his average cost at close to $50. We have spoken positively about Citi in the past. My brother and I have been longtime shareholders. With Lampert on-board and a 4% yield, we are happy to continue to hold.

Tracking Buffett 3

It's that time again. It's been almost a year since we took a peak at Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio, although we may have discussed his new holdings in the passing such as his significant holding in USG Corporation (NYSE: USG), the maker of SHEETROCK.

Since last May, Mr. Buffett has disclosed a substantial holding in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) as well stakes in Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) and Unitedhealth Group (NYSE: UNH). These new positions are a play on demographics and the healthcare needs of ageing baby boomers. As a bonus, both JNJ and Sanofi are significant players overseas and provide a natural hedge against a potentially vulnerable US Dollar. Furthermore, they provide exposure to burgeoning emerging markets and their inevitable need for healthcare products and services. My brother and I have been a longtime JNJ shareholder and recently added Unitedhealth at around $53.

Berkshire has also added to its arsenal of construction and housing related holdings, including USG and ACME Brick, by taking a small position in Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR), a manufacturer of climate control and HVAC systems among other things.

Meanwhile, Buffett has eliminated or reduced various positions in the portfolio. Lexmark (NYSE: LXK) and Gap (NYSE: GAP) are both gone. Lexmark's stock has made a nice comeback. Berkshire had doubled down on Lexmark after a monumental decline and probably broke even on that trade. In Q4 of 2006, Berkshire reduced its Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) holding after a nice run up in 2006. We have been doing the same with our Comcast holding in the Model Portfolio.

Today, Mr. Buffett revealed 10.9% stake, at prices up to $81.8, in railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI). It appears he has taken smaller stakes in two other railroad operators as well. Indeed, in his recent annual report, he had mentioned two undisclosed positions worth a combined $1.9 billion. Railroads' fortunes have turned around significantly in recent years accompanied by improved operating efficiencies and pricing power. The railroads should continue to prosper as globalization leads to increased trade (import and export) and as energy demand (coal and natural gas) continues to rise. It is interesting to note that his good friend Bill Gates has a significant holding in Burlington's competitor Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI). Our exposure to the globalization and trade theme comes through Expeditors International of Washington (Nasdaq: EXPD) which we own both personally and in the Model Portfolio.

So as markets continue to fret over the possibility of a recession and a slumping housing market, Mr. Buffett is deploying his cash and finding value where others see trouble.

Cigs, Candy and Pop

If you are a value investor, chances are you are well aware of the buzz surrounding Altria's (NYSE: MO) spin-off of Kraft (NYSE: KFT). In short, today Altria completed the spin-off of its 89% stake in Kraft by distributing those shares to Altria shareholders. We have discussed spin-offs here in the past. And we have participated in them in the Model Portfolio. In a March 22nd email to my brother I described a strategy to play the Altria spin-off:

"The one stock we should probably own is MO. I like the stub strategy. Basically, you buy MO and short KFT. When you receive the KFT spin-off shares, you cover the short position. This way you have created a 'stub' for the MO piece that will be left over afterwards. It's a common strategy to play spin-offs."

If you want to learn more or refresh your memory about the wonderful world of spin-offs, refer back to or order yourself a copy of Greenblatt's book. In this case, on March 22nd, Altria was trading at around $86. Kraft was trading at around $32. So you could have created the 'MO Stub' at about $57.5. Meanwhile, Altria When-Issued shares (which excluded the Kraft portion) were indicated in the mid $60s. At least based on that information, you would be looking at a neat 13% return. Indeed, Altria ended today above $68 as a standalone. Kraft ended below $32. Ignoring the slight gain on our short position, this trade would have resulted in an annualized gain in excess of 270%. Not bad. There goes the Efficient Market Theory again.

In any case, apologies for not writing about this earlier. It would have made for a nice arbitrage opportunity. Here are a few more you may want to consider. One is the upcoming and confirmed split of Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE: CSG). Our friend Nelson Peltz is at it again just as he did with Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), a former Model Portfolio holding. He has amassed a 3% stake. Cadbury will be split its candy and beverage businesses. Who hasn't heard of Trident gum and 7 Up or Dr. Pepper? The confectionary business would be a shoe in for a merger and private equity players must be salivating at the prospects of owning the beverage business. Upon news of Peltz's move, the stock rocketed 10% or so and has inched up since. But dig around a little and you may be surprised to find that a hefty 10%-25% return has been left on the table, based on a sum of the parts analysis, even after the recent run up in the shares.

The other opportunity has nothing to do with cigarettes, candy or pop but has everything to do with the business of security. Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) has been the recent recipient of much attention from the hedge fund activists including Pirate Capital and MMI Investments which have taken sizable positions in the company. Pirate's founder eventually got his way and was given a seat on the Board. Since then this one seems to be flying under the radar a bit. Meanwhile, the folks at MMI have been kind enough to share their diligence with us. A bit of sleuthing on the SEC web site and you will come across a set of slides filed by MMI laying out various scenarios under which Brinks management would be able to increase shareholder value. Let me know if you would like me to send the file to you. Needless to say you could be staring at a 10% - 25% return on your investment if you buy the shares at a current $63 with manageable downside risk. So as we did with Harrah's (NYSE: HET), if you are sitting on some cash, you may want to park some with the folks at Brinks.

氣質

It's been a fun few weeks. Volatility has returned to the markets and with volatility comes opportunity. It was a perfect storm of sorts. A significant decline in the Chinese stock market, Alan Greenspan chiming in about the possibility, not probability, of a recession later this year and soft durable good orders. Not to mention troubles brewing in the subprime mortgage sector. Add it all up and before you knew it the Dow Jones Industrials had declined 416 points.

But look deeper and you may find that this was just a healthy correction after many consecutive months of gains. Maybe more declines are in store. That would be just fine with us too. Let's take a look at the various elements which instigated the downdraft.

The collapse of the Chinese stock market that was all but driven by retail investors has literally no impact on the growth of the Chinese economy. For now manufacturing, income growth and creation of jobs are all that matter. The priority for the authorities is to prevent the economy from overheating. In fact, the attempt to drain liquidity from the economy was one cause of the sell-off.

As for Mr. Greenspan, he was quick to qualify his comments by saying that while a recession was possible, it was not probable. Thank you very much.

The troubles in subprime mortgages may have more damaging effects and could spill over to other parts of the economy. The already fragile housing markets may be broadly affected. Or investors' appetite for risk may diminish, spelling doom for the private equity powerhouses relying on the junk bond market to make the math work. Perhaps, but in my opinion unlikely.

If the private equity players, hedge funds and activist investors were giddy before the market's decline, they must be salivating at their prospects now. Surely, the discount to intrinsic value of companies such as Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) and Cadbury Schweppes PLC (NYSE: CSG), being pursued by hedge funds and activist investors, has not disappeared over night.

Then there is Carl Icahn's recent bid for WCI Communities Inc. (NYSE: WCI). Who in their right mind would want to buy a homebuilder now? Let's just say Mr. Icahn has done just fine buying up assets when all others have shunned them. If you are not satisfied with Mr. Icahn's track record, you may be interested in what the folks at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) had to say during their recent quarterly conference call. Goldman did not seem worried and proclaimed that "while market conditions will regularly shift, we are confident that our client-driven strategy will continue to produce the strongest results for the firm." Oh by the way, Goldman is ramping up its subprime operations and is on hunt to snap up distressed subprime lenders on the cheap.

If Mr. Icahn and Goldman are not good enough, let me fall back on our most reliable mentor Warren Buffett. In an interview with Liz Claman of CNBC last week, Mr. Buffett rewarded us with his usual wisdom. It's worth a listen. Here are a few excerpts:

"Long term you will do just fine owning American equities. I have no idea what the market will do next week or next month or next year. Zero. I don't think about it and if I thought about it, it would do no good. The main thing an investor needs is the proper temperament. He doesn't need a 150 I.Q. He doesn't need to be an expert in accounting. But he does have to keep his balance when untoward things happen in the market. The reason investors do poorly in the market is they beat themselves. The Dow went from 66 to 11400 over the past century. You would think it would be hard not to do well over that period ... You have to have emotional stability. And if you have emotional stability and stick with American businesses you will do fine."

"I don't think about the economy. It doesn't make any difference to me because I am going to buy a business and be with it forever. I have never in my life not bought something because I thought the economy is going to get poor and I have never bought something I didn't like because I thought the economy was going to be great for a while. We are going to play the game as long as I am alive. There will be mostly good years, there will be a few sensational years and there will be a few terrible years. I can't dance in and out and skip the terrible years."

"[Berkshire's] own businesses right now are pretty good but the residential construction businesses - the carpet business and the bricks business - have headed down in a significant way. But it doesn't make any difference. We are going to be in the carpet and bricks business forever."

Icahn, Goldman and Buffett. All sucessful investors with the proper temperament. In case the bottom falls from under the Chinese markets again, remember the Chinese word for temperament - 氣質.

GaveKal

GaveKal is an international boutique economic research firm based in Hong Kong. According to GaveKal, the U.S economy is not on the verge of collapse as many bears proclaim by citing such gloom and doom factors as the bursting housing bubble, the debt-burdened consumer and the yawning US. current account deficit.

GaveKal’s thesis rests on the prospects of the “platform company” or “Sizzle Inc.”, as Barron’s characterized it, which has outsourced the volatile portions of its operations such as manufacturing to become leaner, more productive and, indeed, more profitable than ever. As discussed in a recent Wall Street Journal article, the resulting reduction in economic cycle volatility has been dubbed the “great moderation” by economists. GaveKal provides an in-depth analsyis of why what is happening really is 'different this time' in a must read book titled Our Brave New World co-authored by the firm’s founders.

Instead of building that next plant, corporations are spending more than ever on research and development, which by the way is considered an expnse and not an investment, to be on the leading edge of innovation. Then there is the supposed negative American household savings rate which conveniently fails to take into account spending on healthcare and education, not to mention the rising value of retirement and brokerage accounts. Indeed, contrary to the official figures reported in the press, the U.S. national wealth continues to grow. So is the world's for that matter. Notwithstanding the possibility, or perhaps the inevitability, of a slowdown (earlier today the Chinese stock market declined by 9% while the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P were all taking a beating to the tune of more than 3% each), the U.S. will always offer the political and economic stability that has been so attractive to the inflow of foreign capital which so many are afraid will one day dry up, ceasing to support the U.S Dollar from a monumental crash.

I am not one to argue with the venerable Alan Greenspan who yesterday warned of a possible recession towards the end of 2007. But instead of trying to time Mr. Market, for those us with a long-term view, it may suffice to enjoy an afternoon coffee, reading GaveKal’s tome and contemplating how best to allocate our investments among GaveKal’s four recommended asset classes: 1. Cash or gold, 2. Emerging markets or commodities, 3. Platform companies and, 4. High quality government bonds. Hint: you should be overweight in platform companies. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) anyone?

Slick Reality

Oil markets have been on a wild ride in recent weeks. After hitting a high of $77 last summer, oil prices have continued to fall and briefly dipped below $50 a barrel in intraday trading during the week of January 15^th. Today oil zoomed past $58.

Numerous articles have been written about reduced oil demand due to high prices, pegging last summer as the tipping point. Others have tried to figure who will be hurt and who will benefit from the decline in prices. It is somewhat ironic that in the middle of all this volatility, the viability of alternative sources of fuel such as ethanol has come under scrutiny. Lower oil prices in conjunction with rising corn prices make ethanol’s economics much less attractive. But ethanol is another topic for another day.

Analysts and experts appear to be ignoring a multitude of signals and data points which should allay any fears of a dooms day scenario. Of course, this means Mr. Market may be providing us with a few attractive opportunities in the energy sector.

First, there is the share price performance of various publicly traded companies since the slide in oil prices began last summer. They have held up quite well and have even increased in some instances. For example, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) has appreciated about 20% in that time span. Indeed, even at these lower levels (see graphic from the Wall Street Journal to the left), Big Oil companies remain highly profitable cash machines. In fact these companies’ internal forecasts and capital budgets are predicated on much lower oil price assumptions than we are faced with today.

Second, there is the minor issue of supply and demand. Many opine that based on supply and demand economics alone, ignoring geopolitical factors, oil prices should be at $40. That may be accurate but good luck eliminating those risks altogether. If it was a forgone conclusion, President Bush would not have felt compelled to ask for a doubling of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Apart from this risk premium, the supply/demand imbalance is far from over. A recent guide provided by The Wall Street Journal titled “Unreliable Spigots, Mighty Thirsts” highlighted the precariousness of the world’s oil supply and the insatiable appetite for oil. The U.S. will remain the world’s largest consumer of oil and developing countries’ demand for oil will surpass that of industrialized nations in about two decades. Notwithstanding Peak Oil Theory, this oil will have to come from somewhere, putting a floor on prices.

Third, there is the flow of smart money into energy assets. General Electric (NYSE: GE) recently purchased oil services company Vetco Gray for $1.9 billion. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) are teaming up to buy the oil and gas assets of Dominion Resources Inc. (NYSE:D) for $15 billion. And yes, there is Mr. Buffett’s $1 billion bet on ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). These investors should realize above average returns on their investments without requiring sky high oil prices. Indeed, current oil price levels would suffice. The U.S. Department of Energy’s forecast is for oil prices to dip to $47 a barrel in 2014, rising to $57 in 2030. Keep in mind these prices are well below oil’s 1980’s peak price on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Those three reasons have convinced my brother and I to build a position in ConocoPhillips over the last several months at an average price of $64. The stock trades at just 7 times 2007 earnings estimates. The knock against the stock is its heavy debt load compared to peers, its willingness to pay up for acquisitions and its exposure to such risky locales as Venezuela and Russia (ConocoPhillips has a 20% stake in Lukoil). Still, in the U.S., ConocoPhillips is the third largest oil company, the second largest refiner and the largest natural gas producer. Not bad and you get diversification to boot. We also recently took a position in Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) at just below $81. Diamond trades at around 9 times 2007 earnings estimates. The stock has declined as Mr. Market seems to be pricing in an inevitable decline in oil prices which would diminish demand for Diamond’s rigs. But the need to replenish reserves won’t go away anytime soon and Diamond has plenty of rigs to oblige. Diamond sweetened the pot today by announcing a $4 special dividend on top of its regular dividend for shareholders of record on February 14^th. At today’s stock price, if you hold the stock for a year, you can lock in about a 5% yield on your investment and the rest, as they say, is gravy.

The Librarians

“Ben Graham taught me 45 years ago that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.”
Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, 1994 Chairman’s Letter.

There is no shortage of investment disciplines, philosophies and methodologies out there. There are those who look at companies’ fundamentals, there are those who read charts and then there are the quants. The quants gather gobs of data, form hypotheses which are tested against historical data and tweak their computer models to forecast future returns. We all know how reliable past performance can be as a predictor of future returns. In his 1990 Chairman’s Letter, Warren Buffett wrote, “Beware of past-performance ‘proofs’ in finance: If history books were the key to riches, the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians.”

To be sure, venerable quantitative shops such as Renaissance Technologies Corp. and D.E. Shaw have amassed enviable track records and kept their investors happy. One has to wonder though if the market has not ironed out the inefficiencies which have been exploited by these whizzes over the past two decades.

It is interesting that D.E. Shaw’s web site has a section on Qualitative Strategies noting that a large share of the firm’s attention is now spent on identifying “profit opportunities by human experts” and that such strategies “have accounted for much of the firm's growth over the years, and now represent an equally important element of its strategic focus.” Renaissance’s site is too exclusive to post any such information.

Then there was the recent Businessweek article, “Outsmarting the Market”, profiling Barclays Global Investors (BGI), the subsidiary and quant group of parent Barclays PLC. Impressive indeed. $19.9 billion of above market returns or “alpha” over the past five years. 2800 pension funds and institutional investor clients. Billions under management - $370 billion to be exact. Alas, all the fancy research, hypotheses and models for a mere 1.64% above market return on average. This is done by spreading bets across a wide numbers of investments. The idea of a concentrated portfolio is taboo to say the least since that would entail too much price volatility, which as we have discussed before, is wrongly equated with risk.

The quants don’t care much about the companies they are ‘investing’ in. Businessweek writes that the “whole sprawling human drama of business is of no interest to Barclays’ researchers, who never venture out to call on a company or tour a store or a factory.” I wonder if it was the same lack of analysis that lead to Barclay’s acquisition of BGI for $443 million in 1995.

AA Value Fund Update

I last updated you on the AA Value Fund in early August. Just a reminder that the AA Value Fund is separate from our Model Portfolio. The Fund is a super concentrated portfolio which I will update you on periodically.

The S&P 500 was flat from June to July and began its climb in August. The Fund actually ended August below its July level before mounting a comeback. As I had noted in my last update, the Fund was heavily weighted in the NYSE Group at the time(NYSE: NYX). While we made out OK with that position, we made the mistake of selling it too soon. Had we held on through the end of the year, the Fund's performance would have been stellar. Since August we also took positions in Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA) which is also a holding in our Model Portfolio and Harrah's (NYSE: HET) which I wrote about earlier. Mueller at below $14 was too good to pass on and the Harrah's story played as we anticipated with a winning bid of $90 being accepted by the company's Board.

For 2006, the Fund was up 59.7% vs. S&P 500's 13.6% increase. This brings the Fund's CAGR since the beginning of 2003 to 49.3% vs. S&P 500's 13.5% return. I have not made any additional capital contributions to the Fund since 2003.

Our current holdings include Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Expeditors International of Washington (Nasdaq: EXPD), Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK) and Western Union (NYSE: WU).

The Dressing, The Dog and The Herd

The end of year provided for some very entertaining reading and tube watching. There were articles galore about end of year portfolio strategies – from tax loss selling to window dressing of portfolios by professional money managers. Among the stocks potentially being dumped, according to a December 26^th Wall Street Journal article would be Corning (NYSE: GLW) which we have talked about before and is a holding in our Model Portfolio.

Then there was the Wall Street Journal article on December 2^nd talking about the oh-so invincible hedge funds who felt they should catch up by unwinding bearish positions and joining the rally. Who says the markets are efficient?!

On another day in December, CNBC had a special on the Dogs of the Dow strategy. That’s the strategy which dictates you buy the 10 worst performing Dow stocks for the upcoming year. Unfortunately for the Dog people, as laid out in another December 26^th WSJ article, real losers may be hard to find. Only 4 of the bottom ten actually finished below their 2005 levels. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), one of our favorite picks and a Model Portfolio holding to which we added to recently, got the honor as THE worst performer of the Dow with a 19.55% decline.

Amid all of this, I wonder what Mr. Jon Brorson has been up to lately? Mr. Brorson was profiled in a rather amusing article in the WSJ on September 29^th as the Dow was mounting a fierce rally from a July low of about 10,700 to 11,700. He has $2.3 billion under management and apparently has a knack for timing market turns. Oh boy. That’s a recipe for stress if I have ever seen one. The article notes Mr. Brorson’s day begins at 4:50 am and ends by going to bed by 9 pm – “I am wiped out when I get home each day,” proclaims Mr. Brorson. No wonder. Checking the leading sectors every hour and eyeing stock charts by drawing horizontal lines across the peaks and valleys can do that to you. Hopefully he didn’t cut back too much on that Phelps Dodge (NYSE: PD) position which ended the year 40% higher from its September levels after becoming a taekover target. Unfortunately, Mr. Brorson appears too worried about the herd and “knows that if the market keeps defying his expectations, he will at some point be forced to start buying the winners, or risk falling behind.”

I say hold the dressing, love THE dog and ignore the herd.

All the best for 07.

Nancy's House

What is a blog if we never talk about politics?

Let me be clear. Whether the government is run by Democrats or Republicans does not change much when I am deciding to buy Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKB) shares for my son’s college savings account. Neither will the actions of the soon to be Speaker of the House, Ms. Nancy Pelosi. But it sure will be fun to watch what she will do next when it comes to US policy towards China.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

An article in the Wall Street Journal about her stance towards China caught my recently. She has protested in Tiananmen Square, she has held protests outside of White House on China matters and she is expected to allow tough China legislation to come to full vote in the House. Don’t get me wrong, I am all for protection of human rights and religious freedom. To be sure, labor conditions at many factories supplying American multinationals still need to be improved. However, taking a tough stance towards China won’t be the most constructive way to deal with things.

She should be reminded that the US economy is more than ever linked to the global economy and is a direct beneficiary of the ascendance of these two countries. After all if foreigners weren’t lending the US so much money, Americans would not be able to consume as much as they do today. In fact they would not be able to buy the fancy wine she makes at her vineyard in California (Ms. Pelosi is quite well off indeed - she is worth up to $55 million with a $25 million stake in a couple of Californian vineyards and a $10 million stake in a golf course).

Suggestion for Ms. Pelosi – have a nice dinner with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to learn about what it takes to have a cordial and constructive relationship with the Chinese. Whether Ms. Pelosi likes it or not, China (and India for that matter) will influence the world more than she may realize for the rest of this century. I will never forget when David Conklin, a professor at Ivey School of Business, reminded me and my classmates how lucky we are to be able to witness India and China change the world. Meanwhile, my brother and I are happy participating in the growth of these markets through investments such as ICICI Bank Limited (NYSE: IBN) in India and US multinationals which will undoubtedly benefit from the rise of the consumer class in China.