Bond in Drag

I am not a strategist or an oracle. But I know something smells funny when Johnson & Johnson’s (NYSE: JNJ) stock yields more than the bonds it recently issued to yield hungry investors. With U.S. Treasury yields in a free fall, investors looking to earn some sort of a return on their cash are willing to accept what appear to be insanely low coupons on corporate debt. The spread over risk-free rates may seem appropriate but the absolute yield is not enough to persuade us to forgo JNJ’s stock for its bonds.

Granted, the bond market may be signaling a faltering recovery with deflationary forces setting in and the stock market may get caught wrong footed. It is unlikely they can be both right. But we would rather collect a handsome dividend with potential for upside than earn a paltry return in bonds while locking up our capital for a lengthy period of time Even if the market does falter and JNJ’s stock declines, it is highly unlikely the company would cut its dividend. Plus, we would gladly hold the stock for the long run and buy more of it.

This is not meant to be a recommendation to buy JNJ’s stock but merely an illustration of the vagaries of Mr. Market. Investors of all types appear to be dumping equities in favor of the ‘safety’ of bonds and gold. What about all the money that is being printed by central banks all around the world? Could inflation be on its way sooner than people think one that money finds its way into the hands of borrowers? Higher rates would follow thereby decimating bondholders in its wake. Gold appears to be in agreement with this outcome as its price zooms ever higher if you agree with the characterization that it is a classic inflation hedge. The bond bulls on the other hand contend that the world is on the brink of collapse and we are in a deflationary spiral which will only lead to lower Treasury yields. Even if this is so, the bulk of the gains have probably already materialized and in any case the risk/reward profile just doesn’t seem to be there when compared with equities.

In any case, shouldn’t one be investing in equities when all others are reluctant to do so?! Apparently not if you ask David Rosenberg who is the high profile Economist and Strategist at the wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff in Toronto. In a recent note he thought it more prudent to lock one's capital up for 10 years in U.S. Treasuries collecting a paltry 2.4% yield (Mr. Rosenberg argues that bonds will mature at par reducing the risk of owning them. But what good is a bond which pays us 2.4% and locks up our capital with no optionality for 10 years!), described Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) as a “bond in drag” (Question for Mr. Rosenberg – wouldn’t your clients have benefited if you had actually bought shares of Pfizer when they were trading below $15? Why only point out the decline from $19 to $14 since the beginning of the year?), conjured up memories of Nortel (I am not kidding) when alluding to risk of owning equities and, finally, disagreed with Warren Buffett’s recent assessment of equity valuations:

“They’re making a mistake, the ones that are buying the bonds ... It’s quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can’t imagine anybody having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities, a diversified group of equities. But people do because they lack confidence. But that’s what makes for the attractive prices. If they had their confidence back, they wouldn’t be selling at these prices. And believe me, it will come back over time.”

The last time Mr. Buffett made such a proclamation was back in November 2008 when he wrote an Op-Ed piece for the New York Times and was ridiculed for his views. Well, we all know how the markets have performed since then.

Mr. Rosenberg and the bond/gold bulls could be right. We may end up with a double-dip recession and/or a decade of no growth à al Japan which would severely dent current equity valuations. To be fair, Mr. Rosenberg concedes that gold prices may have gone too far too fast. Still he conveniently touts the virtues of holding bonds in a deflationary world while at the same time advocating gold for its ability to preserve value as currencies get debased. But couldn't higher gold prices possibly be a prelude to dangerous inflationary forces eventually rearing their ugly head and destroying bond prices? Something doesn't add up here. To be sure highly successful investors such as John Paulson have also made huge bets on gold viewing it as a means of preserving their wealth (a currency substitute). But at least they don't deny the possibility of higher inflation/rates down the road.

As massive inflows into bond funds continue (Mr. Rosenberg rationalizes this by describing it as sensible asset allocation by oh so rational investors), the allure of owning rock solid businesses at today’s prices which offer attractive dividend yields is too much to pass on. At least we know Charlie Munger would rather own JNJ or Coca Cola (NYSE: KO) or Kraft (NYSE: KFT) rather than gold. Here is a classic quote from a recent speech by Charlie:

“I don't have the slightest interest in gold. I like understanding what works and what doesn't in human systems. To me that's not optional; that's a moral obligation. If you're capable of understanding the world, you have a moral obligation to become rational. And I don't see how you become rational hoarding gold. Even if it works, you're a jerk.”

The Old Abnormal

Earlier this decade we were graced with the catchphrase the ‘new economy’ to explain why price to earnings ratios of 100 made sense. Today’s catchphrase, the ‘new normal’, has been coined by the folks at PIMCO to explain why we should get used to much lower growth rates for a while. Mohamed El-Erian and his boss Bill Gross have been on a bit of a mission touting the virtue of weighing security portfolios in favor of bonds and reducing allocation to equities. The logic is that the Great Recession has embarked us on a new era of slow growth characterized by high employment, capital starvation, more regulation and the rising power of China and other emerging markets at the expense of the United States. According to PIMCO equity exposure should now be in the 30% to 54% range as opposed to 60% with no more than half in U.S. equities. Needless to say this advice will benefit PIMCO as one of the biggest bond shops in the world with over $800 billion under management, $120 billion of that coming in since the beginning of 2008.

Perhaps not surprisingly the masses are blindly following the advice of the 'experts' and succumbing to Mr. Market’s mood swings. There is a lot of talk about slow growth, the importance of asset allocation and the nasty repercussions of a depreciating U.S. Dollar. I recently posed a question to Stephen Yacktman of Yacktman Funds during a Q&A facilitated by the Wall Street Journal’s Journal Community and here is what he had to say about the new normal:


So one can try to figure out how to play the asset allocation game or one can concentrate on buying good businesses at reasonable prices. As I have discussed before, many of the largest U.S. corporations offer a natural hedge against a declining U.S. Dollar not to mention the fact that by virtue of being multinationals they will also let you participate in the growth of non-U.S. economies. This is the time to invest in equities for the long run not when growth resumes and the ‘new normal’ morphs into the ‘old abnormal’. To be sure Mr. Market has been on a bit of a tear since April and equities are more fairly valued than cheap. But companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Coca Cola (NYSE: KO), Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and Ebay (Nasdaq: EBAY) are worth considering despite the recent rally.

The Golden Wall

The Black Box algorithms and catchy names served their purpose while the good times rolled along through the early part of 2007. Fees and market beating returns for the likes of Pequot Capital and Atticus Capital were all too easy to come by. But the recent turmoil in the markets is turning out to be a tad too much for these folks. Pequot is all but shut down and Atticus announced a few weeks ago that it is returning 95 percent of its investors' money by October. It turns out, according to one source close to Atticus' Mr. Barakett, that “there is no fundamental analysis in the market today” and that the "golden era of equity investment is over”. I am not making this up. This was printed loud and clear on the front section of Financial Times' Market section. Yup, Mr. Barakett even attributed a portion of his performance over the past ten years to luck. So much for the secret Black Box algorithms and hanging in there for your loyal investors when the times get tough. Unfortunately he has no incentive to do so. Why work hard to make up for losses when he won't get paid for his efforts (hedge funds can't collect a performance fee until they get back over the previously set high water mark)? This pervasive psychology along with the rise of the Black Swan theory and Dr. Doom and headlines such as “There will be Blood” in our own Globe and Mail newspaper are what typify market bottoms. We may not be out of the woods yet but this is exactly when you want to be putting your money to work. The golden age may have ended for the fancy hedge fund folks, but Mr. Market will happily continue climbing that shiny Golden Wall of Worry for a long time to come.

Certifiably Crazy

The recent sell-off in Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRKB) stock has been nothing short of astonishing. But it is perhaps another sign of fear creeping into investors' psychology. Hand in hand with that decline has been a dramatic rise in the value of the company's credit default swaps implying the AAA-rated conglomerate's credit should be considered junk. Whitney Tilson's article published by Seeking Alpha is a great read on this subject. He calls the stock's dramatic decline "certifiably crazy".

Mr. Buffett himself warned of the derivative time-bomb in his 2002 letter to shareholders. Who in their right mind would think that one of the best investors of our lifetime would ignore his own words of wisdom and enter into such perilous contracts? The equity index put options written against 4 indexes appear to be causing the most angst for Mr. Market. Never mind that the contracts do not require him to post barely ANY collateral even in the event these indexes decline dramatically and that any losses recorded on the books are merely paper losses and nothing more. Never mind that the first contract won't expire until 2019 and that they have an average life of 13.5 years. Never mind that according to a just released email from Mr. Buffett, the value of the indexes would have to decline to ZERO for Berkshire to incur a loss equal to its maximum exposure of $35.5 billion. And never mind that he has gotten paid $4.85 billion in premiums for those contracts which he may invest as he wishes.

Mr. Buffett has indicated that he will provide much greater detail about these contracts in his 2008 shareholder letter and that he will provide "all aspects of valuation" and "deficiencies in formula" for pricing the derivatives. He goes on to say that he uses the formula despite the deficiencies. Classic Buffett to point out the shortcomings of the formula. This should make for some fascinating reading.

In a sign of the times we live in, Berkshire's stock has already rallied 28% from the lows they hit last week. They closed today at just over $3,200. Something is not right when you witness this kind of volatility in Berkshire. But it is precisely in the midst of this confusion that you should be taking advantage of the buying opportunities being presented by Mr. Market. Mr. Tilson has. He has doubled his holding in Berkshire by committing 20% of his fund to the stock.

Burnt Hedges

Fancy suits, designer glasses and a personality that perhaps stood out a bit from the crowd. Back in 2007 as the Dow was marching its way to a record 14,000, these were apparently some of the prerequisites for launching a fund according to some folks. Oh yes, there was one more prerequisite: a secret sauce or ‘black box’ strategy to go along with the fanciness. The Hedgies could do no wrong with returns exceeding 25% a year over the past 5 years or so, justifying their exorbitant fees. Bland looking, boring value investors were out of style.

Well, a Black Swan has swooped in and ripped the Armani suits and the black boxes to pieces. Hedge funds are closing up shop at a rapid pace and more carnage probably lies ahead as redemptions pour in at a furious pace and losses mount. Our own Globe and Mail newspaper has had recent articles about ‘high-profile’ Lawrence Asset Management and Salida Capital which have suffered heavy losses.

To be sure there are those who will come out of this stronger and bigger than before. Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital has managed to raise capital in this environment, a testament to his staying power and superior performance relative to peers. John Paulson’s Paulson & Co. has posted impressive gains amid the turmoil. But the ranks of the Hedgies will be thinner come 2009. Here is a sampling of Canadian hedge funds’ performance as reported by the Globe and Mail in October 2008.

Time to Buy

It has been a while but life can get busy sometimes. I last posted on Margin of Safety in January 2008 and discussed the possibility of a recession and outright Armageddon. Well, both of those are upon us with a vengeance. I have been investing for a little over ten years and the tech bubble and ensuing recession pale in comparison to what is happening right now.

Meanwhile, I have been behind on updating you on the Model Portfolio but have been posting trades I would have executed during that time. I have just posted an update of the portfolio’s performance for the twelve months ending September 2008. Please visit that section of the blog for more color on the portfolio’s performance. Of course the carnage began in October and the Model Portfolio has not been spared. But I plan to add new positions and add to existing holdings as the market experiences these wild convulsions.

These are scary times for investors. I feel especially bad for those who have been saving to go to college or those who may have been contemplating a retirement. The joke is that 401(k)s are now 201(k)s. Predictions range from a short recession to a long and hard economic slowdown that may last through 2011. One article I read used the expression “contained depression” to describe the environment we will face over the next few years. Others are calling this a bottom while others think we may see Dow 7,000. Regardless, we have given up a decade of gains in the stock market. How this will end and when the markets will begin a turn around are anyone’s guess.

There is no question we have some hard times ahead of us. The number of people losing their jobs is mounting every day. The world’s consumption appears to be screeching to a halt. Oil has lost more than half its value and other commodities have been battered as well. Wall Street has been reshaped forever. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are gone. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is trading at levels not seen since its IPO in 1999 and is now a bank holding company. Even the most revered investors have not been spared. Buffett, Icahn, Kerkorian, Eddie Lampert and Bill Miller have all lost billions. Many prominent mutual funds that have been closed to investors for years are reopening heir doors. Meanwhile, many hedge funds are reeling from Mr. Market’s wrath and succumbing to the high volume of redemptions forcing them to sell assets at any cost. There is no doubt the recent volatility and severe decline in the valuation of various companies are in part due to investors demanding their capital forcing funds to liquidate in anticipation of upcoming redemptions.

Franchises such as Goldman Sachs and General Electric have been left for dead by Mr. Market. I have been buying both in recent weeks. For all I can tell Mr. Market is assuming that companies such as Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO), Ebay (Nasdaq: EBAY) and Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) will never grow again. It seems our beloved analysts are overshooting on the downside just as they did on the upside. The bearish mentality is pervasive and even the venerable Warren Buffett is being questioned for his recent moves.

Mr. Buffett has been putting a lot of Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE: BRKB) cash to work in recent months. He has financed the acquisition of Wrigley’s by Mars as well as Dow Chemical’s (NYSE: DOW) acquisition of Rohm and Haas for a total of more than $7 billion. He has purchased preferred shares in Goldman and GE to the tune of $8 billion as well as warrants to buy common stock within a 5 year period at $115 and $22.5 respectively. Many pundits are questioning his timing for these transactions. A recent Op-Ed piece in the New York Time also drew fire from critics. In that article Buffett declared: “Buy American. I am.”, and concluded with this paragraph:

"I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities."

As we were going through the tech bubble, the experts declared: this time is different, companies with no earnings are worth infinity. As the Dow worked its way toward 14,000 in recent years they declared: this time is different, China and India will grow indefinitely. Now the Dow is hovering near 8,000 and they have declared: this time is different, Buffett is wrong and he is making his bets too early. Early he may be but wrong he is not. Calling a bottom is a futile exercise but buying companies at attractive valuations is a game winning strategy. Buffett is still the richest man in the world and I am betting he is still the one and only expert to listen to.

a’R’mageddon

In 2005, while an MBA candidate at Ivey, I was enthralled by David Conklin’s Global Environment of Business class. David is a fantastic professor and was kind enough to warn us on numerous occasions to sell any and all of our US dollars because it had nowhere to go but down. I did not heed his warning.

Fast forward to 2007. I spoke with David in December asking him about his availability to give a presentation on the credit markets to our team at DRI Capital. I confessed to David that I had not taken his advice on the USD. He gave me a second chance. He said Armageddon is upon us and to brace myself. Here we are in January and 2008 has begun with a bang. The Dow has swooned more than 15% from its high (earlier today stock markets around the world were pummeled and the Dow Futures don’t look pretty for tomorrow).

The R word is being thrown around like there is no tomorrow and financial stocks are in a free fall. Even strong results from IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) were not enough to calm the jittery crowd. Meanwhile, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) seemingly took advantage of the turmoil and snatched Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) for pennies on the dollar. At least 30 BofA analysts spent 4 weeks on their due diligence. Time will tell how real the diligence was and if this move was brilliance or stupidity. Countrywide shareholders will get 0.1822 BofA shares for every share they own. Countrywide shares are trading at least 20% below that exchange value creating what could turn out to be a fantastic arbitrage opportunity. The market believes BofA could still walk away or reprice the deal.

Meanwhile, Mr. Buffett is bouncing up and down with joy snapping up more Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) on a daily basis. He also figured he may as well start a bond insurance business while he is at it. Look no further than Ambac (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA (NYSE: MBI) to see why he smells blood. I hope you weren’t one of those unloading your Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKB) stock because according to many Mr. Buffett is apparently past his prime. Well not quite. The shares have all but ignored the downdraft and have rocketed to all time highs as Mr. Buffett works his magic and puts his cash hoard to work. There are also the Sovereign Funds of Kuwait and Singapore and the famous Prince Al-Waleed. All are salivating at the chance to own a piece of America’s behemoth financial titans.

One positive out of all this is that stellar businesses such as Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) are trading at half their peak valuations. And one of our favorites, Mr. Lampert’s Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) has been cut in half. Ok, so retail is in the dog house especially since a recession is all but inevitable, if the US isn’t only experiencing one. But I believe Mr. Lampert will squeeze value out of Sears. The real estate and the Sears brands should provide ample downside protection. In the meanwhile, both Mr. Lampert and I thank Mr. Market for giving us the opportunity to buy more stock. Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), the purveyor of my daily morning coffee has also been the subject of numerous analyst downgrades and doomsday scenario press coverage by the media. That is one to keep an eye on. And how about Intel? Robust results and the crushing below we predicted they would deliver to Advance Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) have not prevented a 30% decline from 2007 peak valuations.

The magnitude of write-offs at the Citigroups (NYSE: C) and Merrills (NYSE: MER) of the world has been staggering. That may just be the tip of the iceberg. But don’t fret Mr. Market’s moodiness. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, be greedy when others are fearful. Yes, life will go on beyond Armageddon and will almost certainly be better than before.

Syntax Destruction

This past weekend Alan Greenspan was interviewed byLesley Stahl on 60 minutes. During the interview, what was known as "fedspeak" during his tenure as Fed Chairman was coined Syntax Destruction by the man himself. Here is what he told Lesley: "I would engage in some form of syntax destruction which sounded as though I were answering the question, but in fact, had not."

Lesley then went on to play a clip (you may be able to take a peak at it here on YouTube) of one of Mr. Greenspan's testimonies in Congress. I almost fell off my chair laughing. Here is what he said during that testimony:

"Modest preemptive action can obviate the need of more drastic actions at a later date and that could destabilize the economy."

Mr. Greenspan's reaction after he watched the clip, "Very profound." You could sense the sarcasm in his voice a mile away. Not that the Fed's actions matter much to us in the long run. But at least Mr. Greenspan's Fed provided us with some entertainment.

Alpha's Delta

S&P's total return for August: 1.5%

Goldman Sachs Group's (NYSE: GS) flagship Global Alpha fund performance for August: -22.7%

The Model Portfolio outperforming both: PRICELESS

Moody Brothers

Some of the most high profile value investors have been hit hard by the recent turmoil in the credit markets. Bill Miller and Wally Weitz have seen their holdings in homebuilders and mortgage originator Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) suffer massive losses.

It doesn’t stop there. Great franchises suspected of being remotely exposed to the subprime fiasco in one way or another have seen their shares pummeled over the past few months. Citigroup (NYSE: C), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) are a few that come to mind.

What if Mr. Bernanke doesn’t cut rates? What if home prices plummet? What if the U.S. consumer is tapped out? People asking these questions are also throwing around the R word - you know, a Recession.

Against this backdrop, the Millers of the world are sticking to their guns. In a recent letter to shareholders, Miller contends that he would be a buyer of homebuilders and Countrywide if they were not already in his portfolio. To form, as two large shareholders in Countrywide were unloading shares in August, Legg Mason increased its position in the firm. Then there was Bank of America’s (NYSE: BAC) $2 billion injection into Countrywide which it can turn into an equity stake convertible at $18. And yes, amid this mayhem, our friend Mr. Buffett took a new position in Bank of America and continued to increase his exposure to banks. Mr. Lampert also jumped in and bought a stake in Citi.

A bear trap? Hardly. Is there more turmoil ahead? No doubt. But it is precisely this kind of uncertainty which creates long term opportunity. There is no question that Moody's business will be affected as appetite for fancy loan structures has all but disappeared. But the company's long term prospects will not diminish because of recent scrutiny of its role in the creation of CDOs - that would be a collaterlaized debt obligation. Meanwhile its stock has declined more than 35% from peak. Some of the financials I have mentioned above are trading at extremely attractive multiples and provide Treasury like yields close to 5% to boot. Lehman, as profiled in Barron's recently, could be a Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) in the making and trades at only 1.5 times book value. Even Countrywide is worth a look. The company has survived through down cycles before and has managed to diversify its business to include banking. Smaller rivals are exiting the mortgage business altogether. The company should emerge as a stronger player once the market stabilizes. It has ample resources at its disposal to navigate through the credit crunch and is trading below book value.

Moody’s is now predicting that housing’s woes will not subside anytime before 2009. That may seem light years away but if your time horizon is more like 5 to 10 years, this is the time to take advantage of Mr. Market’s generosity and start building a position in some fantastic businesses such as Moody’s and Lehman.

Candy Shop

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffett

It was only about a month ago that the Dow had surpassed the 14,000 mark. Today, the Dow crashed down close to the 12,500 level. Yours truly felt like I was in a candy shop. The are too many opportunities to list but I hope you were sitting on some cash to be able to take advantage of Mr. Market's generous overreaction. As is often the case, we have gone from one extreme to another. The word 'liquidity' has now been replaced with the words 'credit crunch'. Financial stocks are getting punished and the stocks of numerous companies which were the target of private equity buy-out offers have been dragged lower. We will see how all this plays out. Certainly it is too early to call today's late market recovery an end to the volatility. Problems could still spread to other parts of the U.S. economy and with global implications.

But opportunities to profit from this turmoil in the long-run abound. I have continued to add to my positions in companies such as Citigroup (NYSE: C), USG (NYSE: USG) and Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE: CSG). I have initiated new positions in battered companies such as Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Moody's (NYSE: MCO) (the latter 3 stocks are also newcomers to the Model Portfolio). Lehman will get through all this just fine and I will gladly add to my position should shares decline further from here. Moody's has ONLY been around since 1900 and basically forms a duopoly with Standard and Poors as the two dominant rating agencies. This time around the company may have its hands full with regulators because of its role in accelerating the adoption of fancy financial derivatives tied to subprime mortgages which are now wreaking havoc on the financial markets. But the company will make it through this downturn just as it has in the past. For good measure, the company has just doubled its borrowing capacity so it can buy back even more of its stock (Moody's already spends most of the oodles of cash it generates each year on buybacks). The news on housing and subprime probably won't get better anytime soon. But this is exactly what you want. Mr. Market's candy shop is open for business. Be greedy when you walk into the candy shop.

The Muellers

I wrote about Mueller Water Products (NYSE: MWA MWA-B) last July. At the time only the Class A shares were publicly traded. Later on, Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) completed the spin-off of Mueller by distributing its Class B shares to its shareholders. The Mueller stake in the Model Portfolio is of the B kind and resulted from owning Walter shares to begin with. But for the AA Value Fund which I update you on from time to time, I purchased Mueller A shares before the B shares began trading.

Back in June I began noticing that the A shares are more volatile but also outperforming the B shares. This was baffling because apart from a smaller float and different voting rights, the A shares represented the same economic interest in the business as the B shares. In fact, if anything, the B shares should have been trading higher than the A shares. The company’s management team was just as surprised about this and didn’t have a good answer for it during a presentation on June 12 at the JPMorgan 2^nd Annual Basic and Industrials Conference (which is still available on Mueller’s web site if you care to listen to it).

The gap between the A and B shares on June 27^th was mind boggling. I sold the A shares at $16.9 and bought a larger amount of B shares at $14.9. Today, that gap has narrowed and the B shares trade at ONLY a 7% discount to the A shares. This situation was also mentioned by Barron’s The Trader column on July 16^th. So far the switch has worked out well with the B shares declining less than the A shares since the end of June. Plus, we own more of the company now and have 8 votes per share as opposed to 1 vote per share. Ah, so much for the efficient market theory – AGAIN.

Below is an update on the AA Value Fund which I last updated you on in January. For the first 6 months of 2007, the Fund was up 21.5% vs. S&P 500’s 6% increase. No capital contributions have been made to the Fund since the beginning of 2003.

Savings Galore

I last alluded to the skewed perception of U.S.'s savings rate earlier this year. Barron's appears to agree as was apparent in a cover story in May.

Visiting Greenwald

There are those who make the pilgrimage to Omaha once a year to soak in the wisdom of Warren and Charlie. Then there are those who make the yearly pilgrimage to Columbia University’s Business School for the Value Investing Seminar taught by Bruce Greenwald. I registered for the course a year ago and finally got to attend the seminar last week. It was well worth the wait.

There were 85 students from all over the world and Greenwald did not disappoint. I have written about Greenwald before when I reviewed his book. It turns out he is working on a revised edition due out some time next year. The new version will delve deeper into valuing growth as a value investor. It will no doubt be a must read.

Greenwald overloaded us with information over the course of two days and not all of it has sunk in yet. The valuation cases on Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) were outstanding. Plus, it was great to be in the company of other hard core individual and professional investors who are just as passionate about investing as you are.

Greenwald’s valuation methodology is powerful. It combines the search for unglamorous stocks with a valuation methodology based on asset values and current earnings while being patient and disciplined. The seminar underscored the fact that there is no easy way out of thorough analysis and a complete understanding of what you are investing in. Once you have calculated an intrinsic value and determined that a company has a moat, the heavy lifting begins. Are your valuation assumptions sound? Is that moat defensible? Does the company have a sustainable competitive advantage? How much should you pay for growth?

An important concept is that if nothing is popping up as an opportunity, you better have a default strategy. Cash is fine but probably not optimal. At least buy the index against which you are being measured until you find investments worth pursuing.

By the way, in case you are wondering, he doesn’t recommend Amazon at current prices. AmEx on the other hand is a buy.

Lampert and The Prince

We first profiled Eddie Lampert late in 2005. Since then, Sears Holdings (NYSE: SHLD) has returned approximately 35%. Our thesis on this company and Mr. Lampert has not changed. Meanwhile, others are jumping on the bandwagon. Most recently on June 1st, Morningstar (Nasdaq: MORN), which by the way is a holding in the Model Portfolio, raised its fair value estimate from $150 to $240. Not as exciting was an increase in price target from $195 to $200 by Goldman Sachs earlier today - we can thank strong cash flow generation and valuation updates for that generosity. We highly encourage you to read Mr. Lampert's Chairman Messages to get a sense of his approach to operating a business and to making investments. You are in good hands. Here is what he did with some of the cash Sears generaed in 2006:

• $816 million used for share repurchases (we repurchased over 6 million shares in the year at an average price of about $133 per share);
• $474 million used for capital expenditure reinvestments in our businesses;
• $318 million contributed to fund our legacy pension obligations;
• $282 million used to purchase an additional interest in Sears Canada. Our ownership level is now 70%, up from 54% last year; and
• $250 million used for net debt reductions as our domestic debt balance declined to $3.0 billion (or $2.3 billion excluding capital lease obligations).

Mr. Lampert generated some other headlines worth mentioning. In May, SEC filings revealed that his hedge fund vehicle, ESL Investments, had amassed an $800 million stake in Chuck Prince's Citigroup (NYSE: C). It appears he built his stake through last September and bought more during the first three months of 2007. Overall, we estimate his average cost at close to $50. We have spoken positively about Citi in the past. My brother and I have been longtime shareholders. With Lampert on-board and a 4% yield, we are happy to continue to hold.